Attention to the Unseen

Joshua Yaffa writes: In recent months, the normally placid waters of Russian politics have been marked by the appearance of small but noticeable ripples—not yet indicators that Vladimir Putin’s hold on power is in immediate danger but that the war in Ukraine is beginning to meaningfully transform the country’s economy and politics. The current tensions began to appear around the start of the year, when the Kremlin banned or restricted most messaging apps, except for one that had been developed…

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The Washington Post reports: A confidential CIA analysis delivered to administration policymakers this week concludes that Iran can survive the U.S. naval blockade for at least three to four months before facing more severe economic hardship, four people familiar with the document said, a finding that appears to raise new questions about President Donald Trump’s optimism on ending the war. The analysis by the U.S. intelligence community, whose secret assessments on Iran have often been more sober than the administration’s…

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NBC News reports: President Donald Trump’s abrupt reversal on his plan to help ships go through the Strait of Hormuz came after a key Gulf ally suspended the U.S. military’s ability to use its bases and airspace to carry out the operation, according to two U.S. officials. Trump surprised Gulf allies by announcing “Project Freedom” on social media Sunday afternoon, the officials said, angering leadership in Saudi Arabia. In response, the Kingdom informed the U.S. it would not allow the…

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The Washington Post reports: Iranian airstrikes have damaged or destroyed at least 228 structures or pieces of equipment at U.S. military sites across the Middle East since the war began, hitting hangars, barracks, fuel depots, aircraft and key radar, communications and air defense equipment, according to a Washington Post analysis of satellite imagery. The amount of destruction is far larger than what has been publicly acknowledged by the U.S. government or previously reported. The threat of air attacks rendered some…

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The Wall Street Journal reports: President Trump chose to look the other way after Iran launched three salvos of missiles and drones into the United Arab Emirates, one of America’s main Middle Eastern partners, despite a cease-fire he negotiated nearly a month ago. The likely conclusion in Tehran, Gulf governments fear, is that further escalation pays off because Trump is so intent on extricating himself from the war that he will ignore renewed Iranian attacks on America’s regional allies. European…

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