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Why researchers fear the Gaza death toll could reach 186,000

Why researchers fear the Gaza death toll could reach 186,000

Mona Chalabi writes: Even if Israel’s bombing campaign were to stop, the death toll in Gaza is expected to soar. A letter published in the medical journal the Lancet claims that the final figure could eventually be about 186,000. Written by scientists who model how war affects health, the letter lays out the importance of an accurate count – and the difficulty of achieving one. For the past nine months, Israeli forces have waged an intense military campaign that has…

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J.D. Vance believes in ‘regime change’

J.D. Vance believes in ‘regime change’

Zack Beauchamp writes: I met Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), Donald Trump’s new choice for vice president, in the summer of 2022. I was covering a conservative conference in Israel, and Vance was the surprise VIP attraction. We chatted for a bit about the connections between right-wing movements across the world, and what American conservatives could learn from foreign peers. He was friendly, thoughtful, and smart — much smarter than the average politician I’ve interviewed. Yet his worldview is fundamentally incompatible with…

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Did Biden’s nomination just get saved as his chances of re-election remain doomed?

Did Biden’s nomination just get saved as his chances of re-election remain doomed?

NBC News reports: One Democratic strategist who has worked on multiple presidential campaigns and on Capitol Hill said that the physical targeting of Trump robs Biden of his main argument against the former president. Biden, the strategist pointed out, has tried to convince voters that Trump is so extreme that he presents a threat to democracy. “That message is dead,” the strategist said, after a gunman tried to kill the presumptive nominee of one of the two major parties. The…

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Senior House Democrat suggests, ‘We’ve all resigned ourselves to a second Trump presidency’

Senior House Democrat suggests, ‘We’ve all resigned ourselves to a second Trump presidency’

Axios reports: Congressional Democrats’ all-consuming angst over President Biden’s candidacy has taken an abrupt backseat in lawmakers’ minds in the wake of an assassination attempt against former President Trump. Why it matters: Democratic lawmakers say their immediate focus is on their personal security and that of their staffs, not on their party’s political woes, helping to allow a crucial cooldown period for the embattled president. “We’re all just focused on expressing condolences … and keeping our teams safe,” said one House Democrat who has been fiercely critical of Biden….

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Aileen Cannon follows Clarence Thomas’ lead by dismissing classified documents case

Aileen Cannon follows Clarence Thomas’ lead by dismissing classified documents case

Slate reports: In a nearly 100-page order issued Monday morning, [Judge Aileen] Cannon states that special counsel Jack Smith’s appointment by the attorney general violates the appointments clause of the Constitution, which she says mandates that “officers of the United States—whether inferior or principal—must be appointed by the president and confirmed by the Senate.” Cannon concluded that there isn’t any statute in the United States Code that authorizes Smith’s appointment, so he therefore cannot legally conduct his classified documents prosecution….

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Shooter described as ‘very nice’ lonely Star Wars fan who didn’t discuss politics and lacked shooting skills

Shooter described as ‘very nice’ lonely Star Wars fan who didn’t discuss politics and lacked shooting skills

ABC News reports: Former classmates of the suspected shooter described him to ABC News as a student who was “quiet” and did not have many friends. “He was somebody who came across as lonely a lot,” said Jameson Myers, who said he attended both elementary and high school with the suspect. Myers said that Crooks “tended to be more of an interesting one” and described him as “more socially reserved” and someone who “didn’t have a ton of friends.” But…

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What hunter-gatherer societies can teach us about group decision-making

What hunter-gatherer societies can teach us about group decision-making

Vivek V Venkataraman writes: The Dilemma of the Deserted Husband unfolded in the late 1950s amid a band of G/wi hunter-gatherers, a subgroup of Ju/’hoansi (often known as !Kung San), dwelling in the Kalahari Desert of Southern Africa. According to the South African-born anthropologist and Bushman Survey Officer George Silberbauer, a woman named N!onag//ei had left her husband, /wikhwema, for his best friend. Few were surprised. After all, /wikhwema was a temperamental and pompous man, and a bit of a…

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Former classmate of Trump rally gunman says he was ‘bullied almost every day’

Former classmate of Trump rally gunman says he was ‘bullied almost every day’

  A U.S. Secret Service report [PDF] on school shootings published while Donald Trump was president found that: Most attackers were victims of bullying, which was often observed by others: Most of the attackers were bullied by their classmates, and for over half of the attackers the bullying appeared to be of a persistent pattern which lasted for weeks, months, or years. It is critical that schools implement comprehensive programs designed to promote safe and positive school climates, where students…

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Trump will become the martyr in chief, his own blood the basis for his bid for power and vengeance

Trump will become the martyr in chief, his own blood the basis for his bid for power and vengeance

David Frum writes: When a madman hammered nearly to death the husband of then–House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Donald Trump jeered and mocked. One of Trump’s sons and other close Trump supporters avidly promoted false claims that Paul Pelosi had somehow brought the onslaught upon himself through a sexual misadventure. After authorities apprehended a right-wing-extremist plot to abduct Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Trump belittled the threat at a rally. He disparaged Whitmer as a political enemy. His supporters chanted “Lock her…

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America’s unending conflict with itself

America’s unending conflict with itself

Nick Bryant writes: The advice I used to impart to young correspondents arriving at the BBC’s bureau in Washington was to remember that the United States had fought a civil war in the mid-19th century and was still arguing over the terms of a fractious peace. Much like the modern-day phrase “sorry but not sorry,” which is used sarcastically to indicate a lack of remorse, the brief ceremony at Virginia’s Appomattox Court House in April 1865, which brought the armed…

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Trump’s raised fist will make history — and define his candidacy

Trump’s raised fist will make history — and define his candidacy

Jonathan Martin writes: The pictures and film of Trump rallying the crowd will likely be the enduring image of this election and perhaps his entire political career. Even before President Biden’s catastrophic debate last month, Trump had run on a platform of strength, portraying himself as a politically muscular figure against a weak and aging incumbent president. Next week’s Republican nominating convention will deliver Trump a hero’s welcome and an audience to match, befitting a party leader who had a…

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Biden’s incendiary rhetoric comes back to haunt him

Biden’s incendiary rhetoric comes back to haunt him

Biden told donors on a private call this afternoon: “It’s time to put Trump in the bullseye.” — Kenneth P. Vogel (@kenvogel) July 8, 2024 But as Politico columnist, Jack Shafer suggested: Isn't that a little … incendiary? — Jack Shafer (@jackshafer) July 8, 2024 The Biden campaign, however, seemed to think that in the aftermath of the debate, it would be in their candidate’s interests to highlight his fighting words. As Scripps News reported: The Biden-Harris campaign is on…

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Surprise: American voters actually largely agree on many issues, including topics like abortion, immigration and wealth inequality

Surprise: American voters actually largely agree on many issues, including topics like abortion, immigration and wealth inequality

For a country that often feels hopelessly divided, it turns out that there is a lot of agreement among Americans. Nisian Hughes/Getty Images By Dante Chinni, Michigan State University and Ari Pinkus, Michigan State University As the presidential election campaign heats up, media coverage suggests Americans are hopelessly divided and headed for a difficult fall – perhaps also a tense January. But that isn’t the whole story, according to reporting and poll results from the American Communities Project, a journalism…

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Can Biden run out the clock?

Can Biden run out the clock?

Politico reports: As Democrats frantically debate whether President Joe Biden should be the party’s nominee, they’re racing against an uncomfortable — and uncertain — deadline. Democratic National Committee members are expected to meet next Friday to determine a date to nominate Biden in a virtual roll call, which could come as soon as the end of this month, weeks before the party’s convention in Chicago, which begins on Aug. 19. Officially giving Biden the nomination would effectively blunt some calls…

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GOP pollster: VP Harris is the strongest Democratic candidate

GOP pollster: VP Harris is the strongest Democratic candidate

  President Joe Biden remains under intense scrutiny as the 75th NATO summit draws to a close. Amid all this uncertainty and calls for him to drop out of the presidential race, Republican pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson joins Walter Isaacson to discuss her latest essay, “No Poll Can Tell Biden What He Needs to Hear.”

UAW considering next steps on worries Trump could beat Biden

UAW considering next steps on worries Trump could beat Biden

“We’re speaking truth to those who need to hear it most and that’s the Democrat Party,” Shawn Fain said at Netroots Nation conference, urging people not to put “our heads in the sand and hide from reality — we tried that in 2016 and it didn’t work.” https://t.co/VNVrbaCtuF https://t.co/8RewtWC1rS — Josh Eidelson (@josheidelson) July 13, 2024 Reuters reports: United Auto Workers President Shawn Fain met with the union’s executive board late on Thursday to discuss his deep concerns with President…

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