Politico reports:

President Donald Trump is threatening Canada with economic destruction amid an escalating trade war. He’s not factoring in one key U.S. disadvantage.

Americans are not nearly as gung-ho for a tariff stand-off as their northern neighbors, who have been seething for months over Trump’s rhetoric against their country.

“The U.S.A. will always be far bigger, richer, and stronger than Canada,” Trump wrote in a second Truth Social post. “Someone should get these clowns to ‘fall in line’ or, the consequences for Canada will be far WORSE!

The U.S. economy certainly dwarfs its northern neighbor’s. And while Ottawa has managed to support big sectors such as aluminum and forestry to keep them afloat amid tariffs Trump launched last year, it’s not clear how long the Canadian government can support small and medium-sized businesses in a prolonged tariff tit for tat. But poll after poll shows Canadians across the political spectrum are willing to accept those impacts in order to stand up to the U.S. government.

The opposite is true in the U.S., where even many in the president’s own party oppose Trump’s trade agenda — particularly his tariffs on Canada. And unlike Carney, the president faces a voter referendum in November, in the form of midterm elections.

As the two countries settle in for a long-term standoff, the outcome is likely to be defined by each government’s ability to endure pain: economic in Ottawa and political in Washington.

“I think right now the U.S. has more to lose because we have the election coming up in November, where the economy and tariffs are already an issue,” said one former official at the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, granted anonymity to discuss the sensitive talks. “If it spirals, Congress would be the one to feel the impact.” [Continue reading…]