Nate Cohn writes:

The redistricting wars heading into the November midterm elections had been in a stalemate, with each party’s tit-for-tat gerrymanders roughly canceling each other out.

It’s not a stalemate anymore. Over just the last two weeks, new court rulings and new congressional maps have put Republicans on track to add more than a dozen districts that voted for President Trump. It would be enough for Republicans to obtain a significant structural advantage in the House of Representatives, giving them a much better chance to at least stay competitive even if they lost the combined national vote by a wide margin in the midterms.

On procedural grounds, the Virginia Supreme Court on Friday struck down a Democratic-drawn congressional map that had been approved by voters. The map had been the centerpiece of the party’s effort to counter Mr. Trump’s mid-cycle redistricting campaign. The decision was entirely unrelated to the Supreme Court’s decision allowing states to dismantle majority-minority districts, which has triggered a rush of new Republican redistricting efforts across the South. For good measure, Florida Republicans redrew their state’s map, potentially adding up to four new Republican districts.

With Mr. Trump’s approval rating stuck below 40 percent and Democrats building a growing polling lead in the race for Congress, even a dozen new Trump districts might not be enough for Republicans to retain the House. But while Democrats remain favored, retaking the House is no longer a foregone conclusion. The new maps make it much easier to imagine how the midterms could be a seat-by-seat battle for House control — one which Democrats could well be favored to win, but which would not feel like the sweeping “wave” election it might have been otherwise. [Continue reading…]