Through the Democracy Futures Project, Rosa Brooks led a simulation of a second Trump administration. She writes:

Imagine, for instance, something like this in spring 2025:

On the surface, America seems stable. For nearly all Americans, life continues as usual. But at the Pentagon, top generals are being forced out for objecting to Trump’s cozy relationship with Russia and his plans to use active-duty troops to round up migrants. At the CIA, the Justice Department, and other agencies, civil servants are being reassigned or fired for raising concerns about the politicization of intelligence and the pressure to launch ideologically motivated investigations.

High-profile nonprofit groups are undergoing IRS audits, forcing their senior staff to spend most of their time huddled with accountants and lawyers. More university presidents have resigned in the face of investigations, audits, and threats to yank federal funding over curricula and the actions of student protests. Meanwhile, a number of high-profile journalists are the targets of leak investigations. The owners of several major media outlets are under investigation for specious criminal tax code violations, and the FCC is considering revoking the broadcast licenses of a dozen television stations. Liz Cheney, Adam Schiff, and retired Gen. Mark Milley are under investigation for allegedly mishandling classified materials.

The nation’s streets are largely peaceful. But around the country, numerous civil servants, reporters, teachers, librarians, election officials, and other community leaders are being doxxed and threatened.

You can imagine how this unfolds. Most people will see the writing on the wall: Speak out, and life becomes unpleasant. Your address and children’s names will be posted on social media. You’ll get a nasty letter from the IRS. Perhaps your brother’s undocumented girlfriend will go to work one day and never come home, and you won’t know if she’s been detained or deported. Your pregnant niece might be stopped by police as she drives from Texas to New Mexico, and grilled about whether she’s heading to an abortion clinic. Maybe the FBI and Homeland Security will use undercover agents—or even government surveillance capabilities—to spy on organizations from school boards to church groups, in search of “illegals,” “Christian-hating communists,” the “woke,” and other “vermin.”

The chilling effect on our politics would be intense. Ordinary citizens would self-censor. Many federal, state, and local leaders, rightly worried about the effects on themselves and their families, will quietly step down from their roles.

Far from being a liberal projection of Trump-era dystopia, this kind of scenario was repeatedly highlighted as a bleak potential future by the former Trump officials and other Republicans who took part in our simulations. This is how American democracy will most likely end: not with a bang, but a whimper. [Continue reading…]