Charles Lister writes:

At long last, Syrians are free of Assad regime rule. After 54 years, the iron grip that Hafez and then Bashar had built based upon fear melted away and a glimmer of light appeared at the end of the tunnel as regime control disintegrated in the north and then the south. The speed with which the collapse took place spoke volumes about the extent to which the regime had decayed from within, its security apparatus fragmented, and any prior ties of loyalty frayed by 14 years of debilitating conflict and humanitarian and economic collapse.

In the very early days of this astonishing development, Syria is witnessing a remarkable degree of societal unity. From inter-religious dialogues in Latakia and Tartus to localized reconciliation deals between the leading rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and Christian, Ismaili, Kurdish, and Alawite bodies, the euphoria resulting from Syria’s sudden freedom from Assad is translating into a kind of solidarity that would have been unimaginable just weeks ago.

However, this is the honeymoon period for Syria. A huge challenge lies ahead in determining how the transition occurs and what shape it will take. Beginning in Doha this past weekend, the international community gathered in various bilateral and multilateral formats to discuss next steps. All actors appear to accept that despite its terrorist designation, HTS will require a seat at the table, and most are now proactively communicating with the group. The United Nations is preparing to host a hurriedly arranged Geneva meeting to begin the steps laid out by UN Security Council Resolution 2254 — including establishing a transitional governing body and creating conditions for free and fair elections — though the format, scope, and participant list are yet to be determined.

This externally negotiated process stands in stark contrast to the rapidly moving “transition” already underway in Damascus. In a process wholly under the control of HTS and its Salvation Government, power is being transferred from Assad’s regime to a transitional body led by Salvation Government Prime Minister Mohammed al-Bashir. An English-speaking engineer, Bashir’s first major role within the rebel group’s developing administration was as minister for development and humanitarian affairs in Idlib; as such, he spearheaded the establishment of ties with the UN, which now maintains a permanent aid office in that city.

To prepare the ground for the initial transition at the national level, HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani held an hours-long meeting with Bashir and Assad-appointed Prime Minister Mohammed al-Jalali. Similar meetings have also been held between Assad-appointed ministers, particularly of justice, the interior, and the economy, and their Salvation Government counterparts.

For now, there is no connectivity between the international community’s UN-led plans and the HTS-led transition already playing out inside Syria. In fact, they are operating in direct contradiction with each other. This should not come as a surprise, given the profound distrust and criticism toward the UN and the international community inside Syria. But such a stark lack of exchange between domestic forces and outside actors augurs poorly for any level of international recognition of events in Syria, while HTS’s rapid and unilateral implementation of a transition in Damascus risks triggering domestic opposition and potentially internecine conflict. There are tough days ahead.