Mark Joseph Stern writes:

The 2024 election marked a painful setback for Democratic hopes of rebalancing the federal judiciary: When Donald Trump reenters the White House in January, he will have a pliant Republican Senate majority eager to confirm his hard-right judges. But federal courts don’t tell the whole story: Across the country, voters also elected liberal justices to their state Supreme Courts, which function as a key backstop for civil rights and democracy as federal courts lurch rightward. Progressives didn’t win a clean sweep, but they emerged with an impressive scorecard, carrying seats in battlegrounds like Michigan and safely red states like Kentucky and Montana. Left-leaning judicial candidates even prevailed in deep-red Arkansas and Mississippi, bucking the national shift rightward. And a progressive jurist is now leading the tally heading into a recount in an extraordinarily close race for the North Carolina Supreme Court, with a victory there promising to end the left’s painful losing streak on that bench and serve as a capstone for the one piece of the 2024 election where progressives actually flourished.

How did these judges pull it off? Abortion surely played a role: State courts have immense leeway to expand or curtail reproductive rights in a post–Roe v. Wade world, and liberal judges have perfected the art of running on abortion. More broadly, these judges—frequently with the help of Democratic strategists and a financial boost from progressive groups—have learned to run more effective campaigns that mobilize voters who don’t pay close attention to the courts. By doing so, they may have gained an edge among the Democratic Party’s current coalition of educated, high-propensity voters, who will take part in down-ballot races that many Trump supporters seem to ignore—apparently even when Trump is on the ticket.

This shifting dynamic is perhaps most evident in North Carolina, a swing state that Trump carried by about 3 points. Despite Trump’s triumph at the top of the ticket, Democrats prevailed in other statewide races, including governor, attorney general, and secretary of state. And the party had another key objective this cycle: Breaking the cycle of losses on the North Carolina Supreme Court. Just four years ago, liberals held a 6–1 majority on this court. In 2020 and 2022, however, Republicans narrowly flipped four seats, establishing a 5–2 conservative majority. This year, Justice Allison Riggs, a Democrat, sought to stop the bleeding by holding down her seat against a Republican challenger, Jefferson Griffin. Her victory would create a path for progressives to flip back the court in 2028. [Continue reading…]