Politico reports:

Wall Street executives, political gamblers and cryptocurrency traders are piling up their bets that former President Donald Trump is returning to the White House.

But the stock market may be telling a different story.

U.S. stocks have been on a tear, with the bellwether S&P 500 index climbing more than 10 percent since August. While the stock market is not necessarily representative of the broader economy, the S&P 500’s performance in the run-up to Election Day has historically been a strong indicator of whether the incumbent party’s candidate will retain control of the White House — correctly forecasting all but four presidential races over the last 96 years.

If the index is falling, the theory goes, investors are bracing for more uncertainty from a new administration. But a climb in the S&P 500 signals that the market is expecting the current president’s party to win. And the index’s recent rise is suggesting that Vice President Kamala Harris, who took over the Democratic ticket from President Joe Biden this summer, could be bound for victory. [Continue reading…]