Philip Bump writes:

If the 2024 presidential election were held today, it’s not clear who would win. Vice President Kamala Harris has a slight national advantage, according to The Washington Post’s average of polls, but margins in swing states are uniformly narrow. If the polls are overestimating Harris’s support, Donald Trump will return to the White House. If they are underestimating her support, she’ll be the next president.

Unless, of course, there’s some successful, anti-democratic effort to subvert her victory. An effort that about a quarter of Republicans and 1 in 7 Americans overall think should be undertaken in the event that Trump loses.

That’s the determination of new national polling from PRRI. But before we dig into that, it’s useful to look at a different newly released poll, this one from the Associated Press and its partners at NORC and USAFacts.

In that poll, Americans were asked what information sources they trusted when it came to accurately reporting the results of the presidential election. The source that engendered the most trust (here reflecting the percentage of people saying they had at least a moderate amount of trust) was the certified results produced by government agencies. Local news sources (television and newspapers) were the next most trusted, followed by national news outlets. The candidates and their campaigns were among the least trusted — particularly Trump’s campaign. [Continue reading…]