Politico reports:

Choosing a running mate isn’t the only big decision awaiting Vice President Kamala Harris in the 100-day sprint to Election Day. Her campaign must also chart a course to 270 electoral votes across a map that bears little resemblance to 2020.

The map she inherits from President Joe Biden is grim. Before the president withdrew his candidacy Sunday, he was trailing in the polls in every battleground state, including the five he flipped to win the White House: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. His path to victory had narrowed to a white-knuckle ride through the Rust Belt, a strategy predicated on holding the party’s so-called Blue Wall.

Arizona and Georgia — and especially Nevada, another state Biden captured in 2020 — seemed too far gone.

That stands to change with Harris as the nominee. Her profile — spiritually, if not technically, a GenXer; a product of Sun Belt politics; a woman of color with experience running and winning among Latino voters; a leading party voice on abortion rights — suddenly appears to reopen the map, offering two distinct paths to victory.

There isn’t enough quality polling data yet to know for sure. Much will depend on Harris’ ability to expand on Biden’s current margins with Black and Latino voters. But there’s cause to think she could blaze a Sun Belt trail to the White House, a route that was closed to Biden.

It begins somewhat implausibly in rapidly growing North Carolina, a state that has voted almost exclusively Republican in presidential races over the past half-century. It’s a daunting record of GOP success, but it’s leavened by the fact that former President Donald Trump carried the state by just 75,000 votes out of more than 5.5 million cast in 2020, a considerably smaller winning margin than in 2016.

The historic nature of Harris’ candidacy is likely to resonate louder in North Carolina than most other places, given that over 20 percent of the population is Black. In 2008, the similarly groundbreaking candidacy of Barack Obama helped him narrowly win there, powered by a record turnout of Black voters. Here’s an idea of Obama’s catalytic effect on the electorate: In 2004, only 59 percent of registered Black voters turned out, compared with 66 percent of registered white voters. Four years later, a record 72 percent of registered Black people voted, outpacing the rate of white people in the state for the first time. Black turnout hasn’t hit that turnout level since.

Given Trump’s current advantage in North Carolina polls, it’s still a risky play. But the prospect of an electorate reshaped by new residents and a possible surge of Black voters will be enticing. The return on investment would be considerable, since a loss in the state would blow a hole in Trump’s coalition. Due to its population gains, North Carolina now offers more Electoral College votes (16) than Wisconsin (10) and even more than traditional giant Michigan (15). [Continue reading…]