Seth Masket writes:

Republican grassroots leaders are increasingly losing interest in former President Donald Trump — and eyeing Ron DeSantis for the 2024 presidential campaign.

That’s according to a new survey I conducted with GOP county chairs across the country, the first survey in an ongoing project that will be featured in POLITICO Magazine over the next year. It’s designed to track the shifting state of what’s often called the “invisible primary,” that lengthy, and critical, period between now and when actual voting in the 2024 presidential primaries begins. Future surveys will focus on the views of Democratic Party chairs, and some will survey both parties at once.

It’s still early in the campaign, and many respondents are not yet committed to a presidential candidate. But the survey results are a potentially ominous sign for Trump as he seeks to claw his way back to the White House in the face of resistance from key party actors.

County chairs are a group whose opinions are worth gauging. County chairs are far more politically attentive and committed to their party than average American voters; they’re going to show up at the polls on primary day. They’re both activists and prominent local figures in the party, who are likely to help influence how others view the 2024 contenders. At the same time, county chairs are a bit removed from the top levels of leadership — they’re not party elites at the national or even state level. They’re still part of the grassroots. County chairs are the kind of people that successful candidates want on their side during the “invisible primary,” when fundraising and endorsements and polling start to matter. [Continue reading…]