How long can Erdogan sustain threat to veto Finnish, Swedish NATO bids?
The crisis Erdogan has precipitated within NATO has raised eyebrows not just in Europe but also in Turkey. Many former Turkish diplomats and veteran foreign policy analysts have criticized Erdogan’s move for its timing and the manner in which it was brought up. They believe Erdogan is attempting to cash in on Turkey’s renewed strategic importance for the West after the invasion of Ukraine and force Finland and Sweden to comply with his demands.
All decisions within the alliance, including the admittance of new members, require a consensus and therefore a green light from Turkey. Western diplomats are working behind the scenes with Ankara to overcome the roadblock, which they fear is undermining the alliance and serving Russia’s interests.
Despite the hard line he pursues in international affairs, Erdogan has often been forced to backpedal on issues after his diplomatic missteps gained Ankara little and increased its international isolation. His efforts to mend fences with the UAE, Israel and Saudi Arabia are the latest examples. Domestic critics note that Erdogan is now trying to embrace these countries after vilifying their leaderships from his Islamist and pro-Muslim Brotherhood perspective. For this reason, they believe his threat to veto Finland and Sweden’s NATO bids will also amount to little in the end. [Continue reading…]