Jonathan Powell writes:

Twenty four years ago, after the signing of the Good Friday Agreement, the Ulster Unionist leader David Trimble told me that he expected Northern Irish politics to become less sectarian and more normal with traditional left and right parties replacing the old Green and Orange parties. That has not happened yet, but this week’s elections in Northern Ireland might just mark the beginning of the normalisation of politics in the province.

Sinn Fein’s victory, gaining the most seats in the assembly (27) and the right to appoint the first minister, is a remarkable historic event. But it is a symbolic event rather than a practical one involving a handover of power. The first and deputy first minister are equals – neither can act without the other – and the result has more to do with a collapse in support for the DUP (down 6.7 per cent) than a surge for Sinn Fein (up 1.1 per cent). Symbols are important, however, particularly in Northern Ireland. The province has been ruled by unionists for its entire 101-year history and the stark demonstration that it is no longer a one-party state will change attitudes to politics there.

Perhaps even more crucial in the long term is the surge in support for the non-sectarian Alliance Party, which won 13.5 per cent of the vote. The growth of the political centre ground is likely to be reflected in the census later this year, which will probably show for the first time more Catholics than Protestants but also a substantial increase in those who reject affiliation with either tradition. If Northern Ireland can escape the trap of sectarian politics, so that identity no longer overrides all else, then the work of the Good Friday Agreement will finally be accomplished.

Unfortunately, before we reach this political nirvana, we are going to have to face yet another political crisis. [Continue reading…]