Politico reports:

The White House has begun to harbor fears that Vladimir Putin could soon notch his biggest victory of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — in Paris.

There is growing concern within President Joe Biden’s administration about the narrowing polls in the French presidential election that show a tight race between incumbent Emmanuel Macron and far-right challenger Marine Le Pen.

A possible victory by Le Pen, a Putin sympathizer, could destabilize the Western coalition against Moscow, upending France’s role as a leading European power and potentially giving other NATO leaders cold feet about staying in the alliance, according to three senior administration officials not authorized to publicly discuss private conversations.

Senior U.S. officials have warily watched across the Atlantic for any signs of possible Russian interference in the first round of the elections, which will take place Sunday. Polls suggest that Macron and Le Pen would likely then advance to a showdown on April 24 — and that the potential two-person race would be close. [Continue reading…]

John Lichfield writes:

The shift in second-round opinion polls is also not quite so dramatic as it seems – but potentially more significant. Macron’s average runoff lead over Le Pen in the past six months has been 12 points, 56%-44%. Several polls now put them within two to four points. Politico’s Poll of Polls, which was a very accurate guide in 2017, gives Macron a six-point lead at 53%-47% (but falling).

There are two main reasons why the projected score is so much closer than when Macron beat Le Pen 66%-34%. First, many more leftwingers say they will stay at home this time. Second, Macron is no longer an upstart, revolutionary-in-a-suit; he is the incumbent.

It is an iron rule of French politics that sitting presidents are detested. The 2017 election second round was a plebiscite against the far right; this one could become a plebiscite against Macron. [Continue reading…]