Gabriel Sherman writes:

On the evening of July 19, several dozen Republican donors gathered for dinner in a private room at the St. Regis Aspen to hear Nikki Haley deliver a speech. The former South Carolina governor had been invited by the Republican Governors Association, which was holding its typically drama-free summer meeting at the exclusive Rocky Mountain resort. It would be a prime platform for Haley to court 27 red-state governors as she lays the groundwork for a future presidential run. But when Haley took the stage, attendees noticed that Florida governor Ron DeSantis was conspicuously absent. According to an attendee, DeSantis was holding his own fundraiser 20 miles up the road in Basalt, Colorado. “Ron was pissed he didn’t get asked to speak,” the attendee later recalled.

Welcome to the 2024 Republican presidential primary.

At this nascent stage, it’s common for prospective candidates to compete fiercely for donor dollars and Fox News airtime. But the 2024 contest is playing out like no other in memory. That’s because the race is either entirely wide open or over before it begins. The outcome hinges on the whims, grievances, and obsessions of one Donald J. Trump.

The 45th president retains a psychic grip on the MAGA-fied Republican base more than six months after leaving office despite two impeachments, the horrors of the January 6 Capitol riot, and nearly 350,000 U.S. COVID-19 deaths. In July, Trump dominated the Conservative Political Action Committee straw poll with 70 percent of the vote. (DeSantis came in a distant second, with 21 percent.) “It’s a metaphysical impossibility that anybody, even a senator named Jesus H. Christ, could beat Trump in a Republican primary if he runs,” said Michael Caputo, a veteran of Trump’s 2016 campaign who briefly served as spokesman for the Department of Health and Human Services.

The candidates know this. Haley, who served as Trump’s U.N. ambassador, told The Associated Press in April that she wouldn’t run if Trump did. Others, such as DeSantis, Texas senator Ted Cruz, and former secretary of state Mike Pompeo, tell reporters they’re merely focused on the midterms. But just because candidates won’t openly challenge Trump doesn’t mean they’re not testing the waters in the event Trump doesn’t jump in. “If Trump doesn’t run, you’re going to have 2016 on steroids. There will be 25 to 30 people running for president,” a prominent Republican said. Could the field include Tucker Carlson? Sean Hannity? Even congresswoman conspiracist Marjorie Taylor Greene? Anything’s possible. [Continue reading…]