The U.K. coronavirus mutation is worrying but not terrifying
A new mutated form of the novel coronavirus that appears more transmissible than the original has raised alarm in the U.K. and around the world. It does not appear to cause more severe disease, and the newly available vaccines do seem to protect people against it. Yet on December 19—after an announcement that the variant, dubbed B.1.1.7, had suddenly accumulated 17 mutations and was spreading rapidly in the U.K.—the nation’s prime minister Boris Johnson announced stricter lockdowns there. And numerous European countries have halted travel from that nation.
The response from the U.S. has been mixed, with political figures such as New York State governor Andrew Cuomo first calling for suspending airline flights from the U.K., then shifting to ask for mandatory testing of travelers. But scientists such as Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, say that flight bans are probably too late to stop the variant spreading to the U.S. “I would not be surprised at all if it is already here,” he told Good Morning America on December 22.
Based on mathematical models, calculations by the COVID-19 Genomics UK consortium suggest that B.1.1.7 might be up to 70 percent more transmissible than the original virus. “It’s a shocking valuation, clearly something new that’s circulating,” says Ali Mokdad, a population health expert at the University of Washington. “Any mutation out there is a concern for us. This is a stubborn and opportunistic virus.”
Some researchers, however, doubt that the rapid spread of the new variant in the U.K. necessarily means it is more transmissible. “I do agree we should look into these things. But until we have some data, we should really be careful about what we say,” says Vincent Racaniello, a virologist at Columbia University. The best information on transmissibility will come from studies of animals that look at whether this variant moves more easily from one creature to another, and that work has not yet been published. Because the majority of COVID-19 outbreaks are caused by superspreaders, Racaniello says, it is conceivable that one person or a few individuals spread the new variant widely. [Continue reading…]