Whet Moser writes:

In the spring, during the first COVID-19 surge in the United States, the rising death toll reached a sobering peak in April—a seven-day average of 2,116 daily deaths. This past weekend, the seven-day average of U.S. deaths from COVID-19 broke that record twice, at 2,123 on Saturday and 2,171 yesterday, according to the COVID Tracking Project at The Atlantic.

Yesterday, the seven-day averages for all four of the primary metrics that the COVID Tracking Project follows—tests, cases, hospitalizations, and deaths—were at record highs. But deaths offer the clearest comparison with the spring surge, because in those early weeks many more cases were going uncounted while testing was slow to ramp up. If the seven-day average of deaths remains above the spring record in the weeks to come, it will soon be inarguable that the pandemic winter is worse than the novel coronavirus’s first surge.

And every indication is that this surge will continue to worsen for some time, because of the other milestones the U.S. has passed in recent days: 100,000 hospitalizations for the first time, the first consecutive days of more than 2,500 deaths (three, in fact), the first day of more than 200,000 new cases (which was followed by two more days above this threshold).

Another foreboding sign is how bad conditions are across the country. [Continue reading…]