Yascha Mounk writes:

President Donald Trump has made one thing painfully clear: After he grudgingly leaves the White House, he will keep doing what he can to stay in the news. He will tweet insults and conspiracy theories. He may start his own television channel. And according to members of his inner circle, he may even run for president in 2024.

After half a decade under his spell, many pundits and political observers assume that Trump will succeed in keeping the nation’s attention. I can see why. A sizable minority of Americans believe that the election was stolen and remain deeply devoted to the outgoing president. Even now that Trump’s loss has liberated the GOP from its captor, elected Republicans seem to be suffering from a bad case of Stockholm syndrome. And the 45th president has proved, again and again, that he has a real talent for staying in the limelight.

Trump could prove to have as dominant an influence on politics in the 2020s as he did in the 2010s. The obstacles he must overcome to do so, however, are very daunting.

Theories abound for how Trump rose to power in 2016. According to some, he spoke for the economically dispossessed. According to others, bigoted voters were attracted to his racist dog whistles. But while both explanations shed some light on his appeal, I believe the truth is much simpler: Millions of Americans who don’t think very much about politics thought of Trump as a winner who knows how to get things done.

Since his first bouts with local fame in New York City, Trump has carefully curated his public image to emphasize how much power he has and how successful he is.

Manhattan insiders know that the city’s real elite has always looked down on Trump. But readers of The Art of the Deal think of him as the embodiment of a powerful negotiator who knows how to flex his financial muscles.

Business journalists know that many of Trump’s ventures quickly went bankrupt, and that he would now be much richer if he had simply invested his inheritance in the S&P 500. But to most Americans, the host of The Apprentice is an entrepreneur who built a grand empire thanks to his incredible business sense.

Now, however, Trump’s veneer of invincibility is fading. He lost his bid for reelection, and staged the most incompetent coup attempt since Woody Allen’s Bananas. He can rant and rave about what happened in November, but he can’t keep his followers from seeing Joe Biden inaugurated in January. Fear of what he might attempt next is giving way to laughter. He looks weaker and more scared by the day. [Continue reading…]