George Rutherford writes:

In the early stages of the coronavirus pandemic, California seemed to be a success story. Today, however, the state’s case count is surging, recently topping 400,000 total and surpassing New York. Compared with levels around Memorial Day in Southern California and around the second week in June in Northern California, daily cases have increased fourfold. In recent weeks, the average number of daily deaths statewide has increased by 50 percent.

What is driving this surge, and how can it be brought under control? California is a large and complex state, and our coronavirus challenge, too, is anything but straightforward. In fact, the best way to approach covid-19 in the Golden State is to think of it as a series of independent regional epidemics, each requiring its own solution.

The most significant outbreak is among the state’s urban and rural Latino populations. Among cases where the patient’s race is known, 55 percent of California’s infections have been in Latinos, who make up just under 40 percent of the state’s population. Latinos and Hispanics are bearing the brunt of the pandemic not only in California but along the entire West Coast, including Oregon (38 percent of cases where the patient’s race is known vs. only 13 percent of the population) and Washington (44 percent vs. 13 percent).

In California, the infected are predominantly low-income, densely housed front-line service workers. Leaving home to work each day, they are exposed to the virus. When they return, it spreads in their households, which are often multigenerational. The consequences are striking. In late April, professor Gabriel Chamie and colleagues from the University of California at San Francisco studied 3,953 individuals living in a single census tract in the Mission District of San Francisco. While the estimated prevalence of infection among non-Latinos in this population was 0.2 percent, for Latinos, it was 3.9 percent — nearly 20 times higher. [Continue reading…]