The Center for Public Integrity reports:

Federal health officials estimated in early April that more than 300,000 Americans could die from COVID-19 if all social distancing measures are abandoned, and later estimates pushed the possible death toll even higher, according to documents obtained by the Center for Public Integrity. Some outside experts say even that grim outlook may be too optimistic.

The documents created by the Department of Health and Human Services spell out the data and analysis the agency is sharing with other federal agencies to help shape their responses to the coronavirus.

While the White House Coronavirus Task Force has cited other models created at academic institutions, the federal government has not made public its own modeling efforts. The documents paint the fullest picture yet of the assumptions underpinning the government’s response to the pandemic.

The Trump administration is laying out plans for how to reopen America’s economy, and protesters are parading near state Capitol buildings to demand that happen swiftly. But while overestimating the threat of the virus could cause unnecessary job losses, underestimating it means more lives lost. At particular risk are the elderly and African Americans, already disproportionately dying, based on preliminary data. [Continue reading…]