Siobhán Fenton writes:

For almost a century, political power in Ireland has been held by Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. The two centrist parties have ruled in some form or another, be it through coalitions or confidence-and-supply arrangements with other smaller parties. Saturday’s general election has upended this political duopoly.

Sinn Féin topped the poll in first-preference votes for the first time, with a share of 24.5%. Fianna Fáil received 22.2%, while Fine Gael, in government since 2011, came third with 20.9%. Under Ireland’s proportional representation voting system, it will take several days for the calculations to be made to establish exactly how many seats each party will win. Once that’s clear, negotiations will begin to see who can somehow form a government.

Sinn Féin’s surge came as a surprise to many, not least of all to the party itself, following poor results in last year’s local and European elections, while an Irish Times opinion poll as recently as October estimated the party’s support at around 14%. As a result it cautiously fielded just 42 candidates as it sought to limit its losses. This means it will not see as many seat gains as this weekend’s success could have allowed and Fianna Fáil, which ran more candidates, will probably secure more seats. Despite this, Sinn Féin is now in the frame to be a partner in government for the first time in the Republic’s history.

Sinn Féin has been in government in Northern Ireland for more than a decade through power-sharing at Stormont. But when it started fielding candidates for the Dáil in Dublin in the late 1980s, it was perceived as a hardline fringe group with disturbing connections to the IRA and failed to gain a foothold. Many voters had strong moral objections to what they considered to be Sinn Féin politicians’ support for terrorism, or felt it was a single-issue party with little to offer beyond seeking the reunification of Ireland.

However, particularly after the 2008 financial crisis, Sinn Féin reinvented itself on the mainstream left. It has seen a surge in support among younger voters. Exit polls from the general election suggest that Sinn Féin was the most popular party for all age groups under the age of 65 – with support highest in the 18-24 and 25-34 categories. [Continue reading…]