Jim Newell writes:

Joe Biden is finally, officially getting into the race. If you want to get a sense of how threatened other presidential aspirants feel about this, consider their own decisions. Massachusetts Rep. Seth Moulton joined the race this week, just a couple of weeks after his House colleagues Eric Swalwell (California) and Tim Ryan (Ohio) did the same. Beto O’Rourke, Jay Inslee, and former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper entered in March, joining Kirsten Gillibrand, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Tulsi Gabbard, John Delaney, Amy Klobuchar, Pete Buttigieg, Andrew Yang, Julian Castro, and Cory Booker. Michael Bennet, Bill de Blasio, Steve Bullock, and Stacey Abrams are still weighing their options, so let’s safely say at least two out of four of them will go for it.

The story of the 2020 Democratic presidential primary so far has been the historic size of the field, which will end up in the mid-20s before all is said and done. And the size of the field is, in large part, a reflection of how Democratic politicians view Joe Biden: as a paper tiger, whose fall will make the nomination anyone’s for the taking.

Candidates jump into the presidential race for all different reasons: to actually become president, yes, but also to raise their national profiles for the vice presidency, Cabinet positions, book releases, and cable news contributor agreements. And yet, when Democratic senators and governors had a similar opportunity in 2016, the only mainstream opponent willing to challenge Hillary Clinton was former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley. (How’d that profile-raising work out for him?) The field in 2016 was so small not because politicians with national aspirations didn’t exist, but because they thought Clinton—with her name recognition, financial resources, party relationships, high early polling numbers, and general next-in-line aura—was inevitable. She cleared the field of most competition because other mainstream candidates knew she would win (and non-mainstream Bernie figured she would too).

Biden is something more like a 2016 Jeb Bush: a weak establishment favorite whose time might be past and—should voters deprioritize his top perceived strength, electability—who could soon face the wolves. [Continue reading…]